Between January 2022 and March 2023, the price of food products that were more
exposed to Brexit (due to their reliance on imports from the EU before the referendum),
increased by approximately 3.5 percentage points more than those that were not.
• These changes were entirely driven by products with high non-tariff barriers. Food
products which fall into this category, such as meat and cheese imported from the EU,
have seen price increases in the region of 10 percentage points higher relative to similar
products which were not exposed to Brexit since January 2021, when the trade and cooperation (TCA) agreement began.
• The cost of Brexit to each household now stands at £250 when only considering the
impacts on food since December 2019. This aggregates up to £6.95 billion overall for
UK households.
• The observed price increases of products more exposed to Brexit are not correlated
with macro events which could be associated with inflationary pressures such as Covid
3
lockdowns, or the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Furthermore, the fact that the results
are driven entirely by products with high NTBs imported from the EU offers strong
evidence that Brexit is the driving force behind these effects.